🟠MT. GOX: IMPATTO SU BITCOIN
Giorno: 2024-07-04 | Ora: 10:57 Secondo Peter Chung di Presto Labs, il ritorno dei fondi di Mt. Gox potrebbe essere negativo per Bitcoin Cash (BCH), ma non per Bitcoin (BTC). Mt. Gox restituirà ai suoi ex clienti BCH del valore di 73 milioni di dollari, pari al 24% del volume di trading giornaliero del token. Chung sostiene che i trader venderanno immediatamente BCH perché il fork di Bitcoin Cash è avvenuto tre anni dopo il fallimento di Mt. Gox. Consiglia di prendere posizioni lunghe su BTC e corte su BCH per approfittare di questa situazione.
According to Peter Chung from Presto Labs, the return of funds from Mt. Gox could have a negative impact on Bitcoin Cash (BCH), but not on Bitcoin (BTC). Mt. Gox will be returning BCH worth $73 million to its former clients, which is equivalent to 24% of the token's daily trading volume. Chung believes that traders will immediately sell their BCH because the Bitcoin Cash fork occurred three years after Mt. Gox's failure. He advises taking long positions on BTC and short positions on BCH to take advantage of this situation.
Mt. Gox's bankruptcy redemptions are bearish for BCH, not BTC, writes Presto Labs' Peter Chung.
Mt. Gox will send back to its former customers $73 million worth of BCH, worth over 20% of the token's daily trading volume.
Fears that selling pressure from bankruptcy redemptions from the estate of Mt. Gox will drive down the price of bitcoin (BTC) is unfounded, but it could be a bearish scenario for Bitcoin Cash (BCH), Presto Labs' Head of Research wrote in a note.
Bitcoin's price continues to dip below $60,000, with over $200 million in liquidations as the trading day began in Asia Thursday, CoinDesk reported earlier.
In addition to the roughly $9.5 billion in BTC the former exchange will send back to its customers, Mt. Gox will also send back 143,000 BCH worth around $73 million. CoinGecko data shows that Bitcoin Cash has a daily trading volume of $308.8 million, making this redemption worth around 24% of that number.
"Our analysis shows that the selling pressure for BCH will be four times larger than for BTC: 24% of the daily trading value for BCH vs. 6% of the daily trading value for BTC," Presto Labs' Peter Chung wrote in a note, pointing out that BCH's daily trading value is 1/50 of BTC.
In an interview with CoinDesk, Chung said BTC is projected to have limited selling because anyone who wanted out could have sold their claims on bankruptcy claim markets.
In the early days of FTX's bankruptcy, many traders who were not optimistic about a quick bankruptcy redemption, did just that.
"Weak-handed creditors had plenty of chances to exit over the last ten years on the back of aggressive bidding from the claim funds, so we can safely assume the current group of creditors consists of diamond-handed BTC bulls," Chung told CoinDesk in an interview.
Chung argues that traders are going to treat the BCH "as an airdrop" and sell it immediately because Bitcoin Cash's fork occurred three years after Mt. Gox's bankruptcy.
"Creditors are oblivious to BCH's cause," he continued.
Long BTC perpetuals paired with short BCH perpetuals is the most efficient market-neutral way to express this view, barring funding rate risk, Chung wrote in the note.
"Those looking to lock in a funding rate can explore other approaches, such as shorting term futures or borrowing BCH in the spot market," he continued.
BCH is currently trading at $360, down 3.8%, according to CoinDesk Indices data.
